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The Eu-Usa Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership


A study by CEPR London for the European Commission models the effects of the TTIP in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. An ambitious deal, consisting of tariff barriers being lowered to zero, non-tariff barriers lowered by 25% and public procurement barriers reduced by 50%, would lead to an increase in EU GDP by 0.5% in by 2027. Growth effects for the rest of the world will be positive, on average 0.14% of GDP, due to increased demand from the EU and USA. Because of different compositions of trade, particularly low income countries will not be negatively affected by the TTIP. Another, less frequently cited study by the Bertelsmann Foundation finds larger long-term GDP per capital effects of 5% for the EU and 13.4% for the USA as a result of dismantling all tariff and non-tariff barriers. Here, gains would largely come at the expense of third countries. For Canada and Mexico, whose free trade agreements with the USA would lose value, TTIP would in the long run imply a 9.5% and 7.2% decrease in GDP per capita over the baseline scenario. The EU Trade Commissioner Karel de Gucht, citing the CEPR numbers, writes that TTIP offers significant benefits to the EU and USA over ten years during times of hesitant economic recovery. As shared values will facilitate negotiations, results should be reached in three dimensions: market access, regulatory cooperation and trade rules. Improved market access will benefit European companies and consumers alike. Standardisation in regulation would avoid unnecessary costs for global producers. Dean Baker argues that calls to support TTIP for its beneficial impact on jobs and growth are lies: The CEPR model assumes full employment anyway and a GDP raise of only 0.5% over 13 years will not have a discernible impact on employment. Growth effects may in fact even go in the opposite direction: Stronger patent and copyright protections may result in higher prices for goods.

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Tratto da www.bruegel.org