Home / Sezioni / capitali / Greece: Think Flows, Not Stocks

facebook-link twitter-link

Newsletter

Registrati alla newsletter di sbilanciamoci.info

Sezioni

Ultimi link in questa sezione

05/10/2015
Why we must end upward pre-distribution to the rich
17/07/2015
How Goldman Sachs Profited From the Greek Debt Crisis
14/07/2015
Solo lo spirito del Dopoguerra potrà salvarci dalla crisi eterna
12/03/2015
The Conundrum of Corporation and Nation
22/02/2015
La Grecia, le riforme e il giallo della tabella
10/02/2015
Basic Income Pilots: A Better Option Than QE
05/02/2015
Le coup de force inadmissible et irresponsable de la BCE contre la Grèce

Greece: Think Flows, Not Stocks

27/01/2015

How should we think about the bargaining that may or may not now take place between the new Greek government and the troika? (No bargaining if the troika basically says no concessions.) Most discussion is framed in terms of what happens to the debt. But as both Daniel Davies and James Galbraith point out — with very different de facto value judgments, but never mind for now — at this point Greek debt, measured as a stock, is not a very meaningful number. After all, the great bulk of the debt is now officially held, the interest rate bears little relationship to market prices, and the interest payments come in part out of funds lent by the creditors. In a sense the debt is an accounting fiction; it’s whatever the governments trying to dictate terms to Greece decide to say it is.

 

OK, I know it’s not quite that simple — debt as a number has political and psychological importance. But I think it helps clear things up to put all of that aside for a bit and focus on the aspect of the situation that isn’t a matter of definitions: Greece’s primary surplus, the difference between what it takes in via taxes and what it spends on things other than interest. This surplus — which is a flow, not a stock — represents the amount Greece is actually paying, in the form of real resources, to its creditors, as opposed to borrowing funds to pay interest.

 

Greece has been running a primary surplus since 2013, and according to its agreements with the troika it’s supposed to run a surplus of 4.5 percent of GDP for many years to come. What would it mean to relax that target?

Read more