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Tedeschi e alieni
Germans and Aliens
The Times has an article today about Germany’s faith in austerity as the answer to depression. It’s sad reading for anyone hoping that Europe will get its act together; it’s especially galling that Germans remain so committed to belief in expansionary austerity, despite the thorough empirical debunking the notion has been given over the past year and a half (see, e.g., this IMF working paper (pdf)).
But the Germans believe that their own experience shows that austerity works: they went through some tough times a decade ago, but they tightened their belts, and all was well in the end.
Not that it will do any good, but it’s worth pointing out that Germany’s experience can only be generalized if we find some space aliens to trade with, fast.
Why? Because the key to German economic affairs this past decade has been a truly massive shift from current account deficit to surplus:
Now, other countries within Europe could emulate Germany’s past if Germany herself were willing to let its current account surplus vanish. But it isn’t, of course. So the German demand is that everyone run a current account surplus, just like they do — something that would only be possible if we can find someone or something else to buy our exports.
It remains remarkable to see with how little wisdom the world is governed.