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What is to be done: or, ensuring the British people get what they vote for
As the election looms into sight, five things which have long seemed probable now appear to be likely.
First, the odds are that Labour, the SNP, Plaid Cymru, the SDLP, the Greens and Sylvia Hermon will between them have a small parliamentary majority. The polls have moved a little towards the Tories, and they may yet go even further. But they’d have to quicken their pace significantly, or be systemically wrong, for MPs from the remaining parties to have the 323 seats they’ll likely need. Of course either of those things is very possible. But the parties of the left go into polling week with an advantage.
Second, it seems probable that the Conservatives remain the biggest single party, both by vote share and by MP numbers. Even if they don’t overall, they are very likely to be the biggest party in England.
Third, the SNP will romp home, turning a huge chunk of the Scottish map yellow.
Fourth, Miliband won’t attempt any formal pact. Instead, he will try to form a minority government, proposing his programme bit by bit to the Commons, and winning where Labour’s ideas command the support of a majority of MPs.
Finally, the right wing press and the Conservatives will find any excuse they can to declare that Miliband isn’t a legitimate Prime Minister, as I wrote about a month ago, and my co-editor Olly Huitson has examined again since.
Among the likely reasons for this claim will be those which are nonsense: that his party depends on those who wish to break up the union (which will probably include half of the parties with MPs); that his party isn’t biggest, and that he suffers from lower approval ratings than David Cameron. None of these things is or ought to be particularly significant, though Miliband’s comments that he won’t do a deal with the SNP may be twisted into a consensus that he has said he won’t be willing to rely on them for votes of confidence, which in fact is a different matter.